Global Trade Poised to Surpass $35 Trillion for First Time in 2025, Driven by East Asia and South-South Flows

Geneva, 9 December 2025 – Global trade in goods and services is on track to exceed US$35 trillion for the first time in 2025, according to the year-end Global Trade Update released today by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

The report indicates that despite challenges from geopolitical tensions, higher costs, and uneven demand, trade continued to expand through the second half of 2025. It is projected to grow by approximately 7% year-on-year, adding about US$2.2 trillion to the 2024 total. This performance marks a robust recovery from the stagnation observed in 2023–2024, with trade consistently outpacing global economic growth.

Engines of Growth: East Asia Leads, Services and South-South Trade Accelerate

The expansion is characterized by a distinct shift in drivers, centered on emerging economies. East Asia recorded the world's strongest export growth over the past year at 9%, supported by a 10% surge in intra-regional trade, highlighting deep supply chain integration and market dynamism. Africa also showed solid performance, with import growth of 10% and export growth of 6% over the past four quarters.

A broader, resilient trend is the expansion of trade between developing economies, known as South-South trade, which grew around 8%, continuing to outpace the global average. The report highlights China and the Republic of Korea as standout performers in East Asia, with Brazil and South Africa being key drivers in South America and Africa, respectively.

A key qualitative marker is the faster expansion of trade in services, which is set to grow by nearly 9% in 2025, significantly outpacing goods trade. Strong growth in services exports from India and China underscores the rising weight of emerging economies in global value chains.

Sectoral Divergence: Manufacturing Strong, Automotive and Energy Lag

Growth drivers are uneven across sectors. Manufacturing, particularly electronics linked to artificial intelligence-related demand, remained the primary engine, growing 10% and 14% respectively over the past year. In contrast, the automotive sector remained weak, with trade falling 4%. This masks a major internal shift: trade in hybrid vehicles surged 22%, while trade in combustion-engine and electric vehicles declined. Trade in fossil fuels also remained subdued, weighed down by lower prices.

Reshaped Patterns and a Cautious Outlook

The report underscores that geopolitical factors are actively reshaping trade flows. Trends of 'friendshoring' (shifting trade to politically aligned partners) and 'nearshoring' (shifting to geographically closer partners) strengthened again in 2025, and trade concentration among the largest economies increased.

Despite the record performance in 2025, UNCTAD's outlook for 2026 is cautious. The report warns that global trade growth is expected to weaken in 2026, pressured by slower global economic activity, rising debt, higher trade costs, and persistent uncertainty. As global trade sets a new record, it navigates a sea of ongoing transformation and challenge.